I promised myself that I would not post about political issues but politics have crept into many of my posts. I should have refined my promise to say that I will not write about partisan politics and I will try and keep that promise.
After a week of campaigning in the Canadian election I find that the results a shown by the pollsters is, to say the least, confusing. While the polls indicate that the incumbent is well ahead, the polls also indicate that the electorate would prefer a Liberal-NDP coalition. What remains clear is that the electorate wants no more minority ruled Parliaments. They want a majority of some kind—whether it be Harper or the Liberal-NDP coalition.
What is also clear is that any movement on the part of the Liberals is at the expense of the NDP. The Liberals have not taken any measurable support away from the Conservatives. Since liberal gains will not occur in the Midwest and they are unlikely to occur in Quebec, the battle will come down to the Toronto (or as the pundits like to call it the GTA) concentration of seats. All forecasted by the pundits.
But, what is the most curious is that the Liberals attack on the credibility and honesty of the Conservative government, and particularly on Stephen Harper himself, has fallen flat. Arguments that the Conservative government flat lied to Parliament, was held in contempt of Parliament, had a minister that altered documents etc. etc. seems to have little or no effect on party support. What is that? Canadian’s don’t vote for a leader. They vote constituency by constituency. And, as Tip O’Neill once said, all politics is local. Canadians are unlikely to register a purely negative vote—that is punishing the local member for sins that are seen to have been committed by the party leader. Therefore, the repudiation of a leader in Canadian politics is hard to do. The caucus is left to do the dirty work.
So what about politics at the local level? Leaving aside British Columbia, the politics of the prairie politics have always been about farm subsidies and keeping the oil patch, well, oiled. This constituency will never vote Liberal. They have long memories about the National Energy Policy—a disastrous piece of legislation enacted by the federal Liberals. The Maritime provinces will vote, largely Liberal. The Liberals enacted and entrenched employment insurance (once called unemployment insurance) and other social legislation that is the foundation of the fishing and other seasonal industries. Quebec used to be a Liberal stronghold but the Party Quebecois did away with much of that. That leaves Ontario.
The NDP made considerable inroads in Ontario while Ed Broadbent was the leader. Since that time, the NDP has barely hung onto the seats that it has and has lost ground to the Liberals and the Conservatives. This election will see further erosion making them more of a rump party in Parliament. They have moved more to the center and there is very little choice between NDP policy and that of the Liberals. I predict that they will merge with the Liberals or form a coalition government.
The Conservatives have made significant inroads in the GTA. This started when Mulroney ingratiated himself to Bay Street big business. This support has continued on to successive Conservative governments. The march to lower federal corporate taxes resonates with Bay Street and this support is unlikely to go away. The Liberals have already staked out the tax issue on the side of leaving the corporate tax rates alone (not increasing taxes as the Conservatives would have it) to fund social programs. Those voters on the left now have a clear choice--between Liberals and Conservatives. Therefore, the NDP are likely to be the losers. The question is whether the left leaning voters will turn out and vote. Remember that Torontonians elected a right wing mayor.
So, what’s the prognosis? As of week 2 I still cannot see a majority government for any one of the two leading parties. I still see a Conservative minority and a Liberal-NDP government.
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