What a difference a day makes. Yesterday I was convinced that the NDP and the Liberals were going (eventually) to form the government of the day. Wrong. All the pundits have spoken and it appears that the “right wing liberals” voted with the Conservatives fearing an NDP coaltion. This left the “left wing liberals” for whom centrist policies were not left enough. They voted NDP. We all know the results.
So, what about the results? For the next 4 years the Conservatives will govern with the “tyranny of the majority”. While most governments have used this power responsibly there is no telling where or how far the current Conservatives will go. The purchase of the jets, with or without engines, will go forward. Corporate taxes will be reduced. The arts, culture and charitable sector will suffer from the withdrawal of the flow through share mechanism. Income splitting among spouses and children will be curtained. Parliamentary committees will be rigged so that no embarrassing issues will rise to “bother” the government. Ministers will be allowed to alter documents. Ministers will be shut up. Debate will be stifled. All Jack Layton can do will be to holler on the sidelines.
The NDP increases in Quebec are curious. I can understand that the BQ failed to give Quebecers any real representation in Ottawa. But the NDP? In a Conservative dominated Parliament? This appears to be a one-election wonder when Quebecers find out that their clout in Ottawa is no greater than what it was under the BQ.
Do not forget that the Conservatives came to power on the back of Canadian business, Jewish voters and radical Western reformers. So, business will be rewarded with lower corporate taxes, the Jewish voters will be rewarded with nice words about Israel and the radical Western reformers will be rewarded by the abolition of the gun registry. Expect Canada’s relationship with the US to be dismal. The Canadian Prime Minister and the US President are as far apart, ideologically, as chalk and cheese.
For those of us in Ottawa expect a much smaller government. Since the Conservatives will not raise taxes they will have to make up lost revenue with less government. And less government programs. Less money for the arts and culture sector. Less money for the less fortunate. It is the kind of trickle down economics that the US saw under Reagan. If you believe that taxes saved by corporations will find their way into the mainstream, think again. US corporations are sitting on a pile of cash while 13 million Americans are still unemployed.
The provinces have already obtained an 8% increase in federal healthcare transfer payments. This was obtained by debate between the parties rather than by negotiation with each province. It will be interesting to see if these increases will be made without some strings attached. The Conservatives have gone on record favoring a two-tiered system of healthcare. This would be a fundamental departure from basic tenants of the Canadian social safety net.
Also expect more of the same regarding any meaningful carbon taxes in Canada. The Conservatives have always dragged their feet when it comes to any meaningfull legislation on carbon reductions. There will be no incentive to reduce consumption and gas prices will continue to rise until Canadian families will no longer be able to afford to drive their kids to school.
Be careful what you wish for, Canada.
Bernie.
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